The increase, coupled with the sharp sell-off in the U.S. stock-index futures, prompted traders to increase estimates of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to 116 basis points this year, up from 100 basis points before the China news hit the wires, CME’s FedWatch tool shows.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded 0.7% lower on the day at $82,500 at press time, having earlier put in highs above $84,600. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, represented by Deribit’s DVOL index, rose to an annualized 54.6%, the highest in two weeks.

VIX index. (TradingView)

The post Wall Street Volatility Gauge Hits 4.5-Year High While Traders Lift Fed Rate-Cut Bets appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

As the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for March approaches, bitcoin (BTC) bulls find themselves in a situation reminiscent of the character Two-Face (Harvey Dent) from the movie “The Dark Knight,” who flips coins to make decisions, confident of controlling the fate irrespective of the outcome.

It’s a classic case of “heads I win, tails you lose,” which means that bitcoin bulls will likely come out on top after the impending jobs report, regardless of whether the data reveals labor market strength or weakness.

This situation arises from President Donald Trump’s Wednesday announcement of sweeping tariffs affecting 180 nations, prompting forward-looking markets to price in recession risks and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Consequently, stronger-than-expected jobs data, which typically strengthens the dollar and pressures risk assets like BTC, may be dismissed as outdated, overlooking the recent developments resulting from Trump’s policies. Therefore, any dip in BTC following a potentially hot NFP report could be swiftly reversed, leading to gains.

On the other hand, weak data would only add to recession fears and bolster Fed rate cut bets, supporting increased risk-taking in financial markets.

At press time, bitcoin changed hands at $84,190, having hit lows below $82,000 Thursday, per CoinDesk data. The fact that prices have stayed well above the $77,000 March low despite peak tariff uncertainty indicates seller fatigue and potential for a price rise.

Volmex’s bitcoin one-day implied volatility index stood at an annualized 65%, indicating an expected price swing of 3.4% in the next 24 hours.

The jobs data is due at 12:30 UTC. According to FactSet, the median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment in March is 130,000, down from February’s 151,000 tally. The jobless rate is forecast to have risen to 4.2% from 4.1%.

Ahead of the data release, rates traders are pricing 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, with the first move expected to happen in June, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

The post March Jobs Report a ‘Heads I Win, Tails You Lose’ Moment for Bitcoin Bulls appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

Solana’s SOL token is poised for a potential price swing of almost 6% after some large investors, or whales, dumped their holdings ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) report due later Friday.

This estimate comes from Volmex’s one-day implied volatility index (IV) for SOL. At press time, the index showed a one-day reading annualized at 109.70%, indicating an expected 24-hour price volatility of 5.74%. (The daily figure is derived by dividing the annualized volatility by the square root of 365, the number of trading days in a year.)

A movement that size represents moderate volatility, especially considering that the cryptocurrency has experienced several days of 6% or higher volatility since early March, according to data from CoinDesk.

In other words, the market is likely to be volatile, but nothing out of the ordinary.

Whale selling

Data tracked by blockchain sleuth Lookonchain shows several whales unstaked and dumped SOL worth $46.3 million into the market.

Large offloading of coins by whales often leads to bearish price action. However, the amount sold early today equates to 0.97% of the cryptocurrency’s 24-hour trading volume of $4.7 billion.

So, it’s no surprise that SOL is trading little changed at around $116, having printed a low of $112 on Thursday. Broadly speaking, the cryptocurrency has been in a downtrend since reaching a high of $295 on Jan. 19.

Focus on payrolls

The U.S. jobs data, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, is forecast to reveal that the economy added 130,000 jobs in March, slowdown from February’s 151,000 and well below the 12-month average of 162,300, according to FactSet.

The median estimate for the jobless rate for March is is 4.2%, the highest since November and up from February’s 4.1% reading. Average hourly earnings are forecast to have risen 0.3% month-on-month, matching February’s pace.

A weaker-than-expected figure will likely validate renewed pricing for four 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts this year, potentially sending risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, higher.

The post Solana’s SOL Could See Nearly 6% Price Swing as Whales Dump Coins Before U.S. Jobs Data appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

“Tornado [Cash] is dead, but privacy won’t die,” an ether enthusiast said on X after Oxbow’s Ethereum privacy tools went live on April 1 to facilitate on-chain privacy while dissociating from illicit funds.

The sentiment is echoed by the early uptake for the privacy pools, which have processed 238 user deposit transactions, totaling 67.49 ETH in the first three days. The new tool has received a thumbs-up from Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, who was one of the first to deposit ETH.

These privacy pools leverage zero-knowledge proofs and commitment schemes to facilitate ether deposits and subsequent withdrawals, in part or whole, while breaking the link between deposits and withdrawal addresses. Think of it like having a specialized bank account to send money while hiding your identity or how much money you have.

The architecture comprises the contract layer for managing assets, the zero-knowledge layer to ensure privacy and the association set provider layer that ensures compliance by vetting funds.

The three layers work together to preserve privacy while screening transactions for links to illicit actors such as hackers, phishers and scammers. The screening is dynamic, meaning a deposit is accepted but later found malicious, it can be removed.

Privacy pools are non-custodial, ensuring users retain full control over their funds, allowing even rejected deposits to move back funds to their original addresses.

As of now, the deposit limits are set between 0.1 ETH and 1 ETH, with the promise to increase the same after the initial battle testing period.

“This is only the beginning. The road to making privacy normal again is long and exciting, and we can’t do it alone!” 0xbow said on X.

The post 0xbow’s Ethereum Privacy Pools Surpass 200 Deposits as User Interest Grows appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

U.S. recession fears are in the air following President Donald Trump’s tariff plan, with prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi indicating heightened concerns the economy will take a hit.

On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, the chance of the country slipping into recession this year topped 50% for the first time since the betting contract “US Recession in 2025” began trading early this year. The contract’s Yes shares soared to over 50 cents from 39 cents in less than 24 hours.

The contract will resolve to Yes if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirms a recession at any point before Dec. 31. The other condition requires back-to-back quarterly contractions in gross domestic product.

Kalshi, a U.S.-based regulated prediction market, also points to heightened economic concerns among traders, with the probability of a 2025 recession rising to 54% from 40% .

Financial markets tend to be forward-looking and may react to rising U.S. recession odds by sending risk assets such as bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies lower. At publication time, the S&P 500 futures traded 3% lower, pointing to severe risk aversion on Wall Street and offering bearish cues to bitcoin, which changed hands at $83,100, 1.5% lower in 24 hours.

The sweeping tariffs unveiled Wednesday set a base rate of 10% on all imports, plus higher taxes on 60 nations identified as worst offenders. China, the most heavily hit, warranted a 34% levy on top of the existing 20% charge, taking the total to 54%. The base tariffs go into effect on April 5 and the higher reciprocal rates on April 9.

While the Trump administration expects tariffs to rectify the large and persistent U.S. goods trade deficits, in the short run, they could add to domestic inflation and global instability. The latter could happen immediately if China, the European Union and others hit back with higher tariffs, starting a full-blown global trade war.

Risk-off to be short-lived?

Still, some observers say the tariff uncertainty might lead only to an economic slowdown rather than a full-blown recession.

“The threat of further tariff escalation remains a key concern, but our economic forecasts do not call for a recession in the US,” UBS said in a blog post. “In our base case, a wide range of selective tariffs and counteractions are likely to lead to slower economic growth compared to last year, but they should not prevent the US economy from expanding by around 2%—its historical trend rate—this year.”

As for financial markets, some observers say the tariffs are dovish, meaning the initial risk-off reaction could be short-lived and quickly reversed by expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.

“Remember – tariffs are dovish, and big tariffs are very dovish,” Joseph Wang, operator of the research portal fedguy.com said on X, referring to his November post that detailed how big tariffs would lead to more rate cuts.

Wang argued that while tariffs are inflationary, they can be mitigated through foreign-exchange rates and are ultimately transitory. Meanwhile, damage to the business sentiment can be long-lasting, leading to unemployment, which the Fed would want to avoid.

Rates traders are already pricing a higher probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark borrowing cost in June, restarting the so-called easing cycle that began in September last year.

The post U.S. Recession Odds Surge in Prediction Markets on Tariff Shock. What Next for BTC? appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

We are referring to the head-and-shoulders pattern, comprising three peaks, with the middle being the highest. A horizontal line drawn from the base of the three peaks, the neckline, marks the key demand zone.

In XRP’s case, the $1.90-$2 range has been that demand zone since January. So, a price move below the same would trigger the H&S breakdown, confirming a bullish-to-bearish trend change.

A potential breakdown could see prices nearly halve to $1.07, according to veteran analyst and trader Peter Brandt. Chart analysts identify targets using the measure move method, which involves determining the distance from the top of the head to the neckline and subtracting that distance from the breakdown point, in this case, $2.

XRP’s daily price chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

On the higher side, $3, or the lower high created in early March, is the level to beat for the bulls.

The post XRP Nears Topping Pattern That Could Lead to a Downtrend, Establishing $1.07 as Support: Technical Analysis appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

On Wednesday, Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on imports from 180 nations, including higher taxes on trading partners identified as worst offenders, such as China and the European Union.

Trump imposed a new 34% tariff on goods from China in addition to the existing 20% tax, bringing the total levy to 54%, the highest for any nation. Meanwhile, the latest action did not affect Canada and Mexico.

Observers say the ball is now in China’s court, and the nature of its retaliation could determine the market reaction.

“Everything now depends on China. If China devalues the Yuan in response to today’s large, additional US tariffs, that sets off a global risk-off that hits EMs first and then – if it persists – spills back to the US. China has so far kept a very low profile. That may now end,” Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist at the International Institute of Finance, said on X.

Early Thursday, Beijing urged the U.S. to lift tariffs while vowing retaliation immediately. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan dropped to a seven-week low of 7 RMB/USD alongside losses in the Asian equities and an impending death cross on bitcoin (BTC).

Letting the yuan depreciate, which makes Chinese goods more attractive in international markets, is one way to counter Trump’s tariffs. That said, it could spell trouble for carry (currency) trades and scare financial markets, as observed in 2015 and 2018.

Besides, potential intervention by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to stall a rapid yuan decline can boost the dollar index, inadvertently weighing over risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.

It’s no coincidence that Asian equities traded in the red at press time, with Japan’s Nikkei hitting an eight-month low. The U.S. stock futures fell over 2%, pointing to risk-off mode.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded near $83,300, having dropped from $88,000 to $82,500 following Trump’s tariffs announcement, according to CoinDesk market data.

The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the cryptocurrency’s spot price appears on track to cross below its 200-day SMA, confirming what is known as the “death cross” bearish technical pattern.

BTC’s daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

Though it has a mixed record of predicting price trends, the latest cross happening against the backdrop of escalating trade tensions warrants attention – more so, as options pricing now shows bias for puts or downside protection out to the June end expiry, according to Deribit and Amberdata.

The post Bitcoin Nears Death Cross, Yuan Tumbles with Asian Markets After Trump Tariffs Put Focus on China’s Response appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

The BTC/JPY trading on the Japan-based bitFlyer fell 1% after failing to take out the trendline drawn off the record high reached on Jan. 20, data from charting platform TradingView show.

BTC’s USD-denominated price faced similar losses. Meanwhile, Asian equity indices and the U.S. equity futures treaded water ahead of President Donald Trump’s sweeping new “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday that could trigger a global trade war.

The tariff uncertainty has spurred several investment banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, pencil in a higher chance of U.S. recession or consecutive quarterly contractions in the growth rate.

Some crypto observers expect investors to treat bitcoin (BTC) as a haven asset should a tariff-led economic swoon materialize. Goldman, however, sees the Japanese yen, a long-preferred safe haven, as the top hedge against U.S. risks.

“The yen offers investors the best currency hedge should the chances of a US recession increase,” Kamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging market strategy at Goldman Sachs, said late Tuesday, according to Bloomberg.

Trivedi added that the yen is also a “very good hedge” against U.S. labor market weakness and tends to do best when U.S. real rates [inflation-adjusted yields] and U.S. equities fall together.

BTC/JPY pressing against the downtrend line. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

While BTC is widely seen as a digital gold or haven asset by crypto market participants, the cryptocurrency has historically moved in tandem with technology stocks. In other words, tariffs-led risk-off on Wall Street could spill over into the crypto market.

Additionally, the yen’s strength could prompt the unwinding of risk-on bullish trades financed by inexpensive yen-denominated loans, contributing to overall risk aversion in financial markets. The crypto market experienced this in early August last year when the yen carry trade unravelled, leading to declines in both stocks and BTC. During that period, bitcoin plummeted from approximately $65K to $50K within a week.

Goldman expects the Japanese yen to rise to the low 140s against the U.S. dollar this year. The USD/JPY pair traded at 149.77 at press time. The exchange rate is known to closely track the differential between yields on the 10-year U.S. and Japanese bonds.

The latter recently dropped to its lowest since August 2022, offering yen-bullish cues.

U.S.-Japan 10-year bond yield differential. (TradingView/CoinDesk)

The post Bitcoin Slides 1% as Goldman Picks Yen Over BTC Amid Tariff Fears appeared first on Crypto Spyder.

Crypto enthusiasts might have heard of the ERC-20 token standard, which provides guidelines to ensure that tokens created on the Ethereum smart contract blockchain are compatible and can interact with other tokens and applications within the network.

A similar standard for data-backed tokens, called VRC-20, has now emerged.

Vana, an EVM-compatible Layer 1 blockchain that helps users monetize personal data by bundling it into DataDAOs for AI model training, introduced the new standard early this week to boost trust and transparency in the market for data-backed digital assets.

“For data markets to work, tokens must be reliable, secure, and useful. As a universal standard for data-backed tokens, VRC-20 delivers this by ensuring fair and transparent data token trading,” Vana announced on X.

The VRC-20 standard design includes specific criteria such as fixed supply, governance, and liquidity rules while ensuring real data access by tying tokens to actual data utility. Additionally, it promotes continuous liquidity through rewards that ensure market stability.

“This isn’t speculation. This is real financialization of data,” Vana noted.

Vana launched its mainnet in December, with VANA as its native cryptocurrency. Since then, the network has onboarded over 12 million data points through multiple DataDAOs, reflecting strong demand for user-owned data.

DataDAOs or data liquidity pools are decentralized marketplaces that bring data onchain as transferable digital tokens. DLPs are where data is contributed, tokenized and made ready for use in applications such as AI model training.

Monday’s announcement replaced VANA emissions as DataDAO inventive with a new feature that calls for DAOs to issue VRC-20-compliant tokens to receive liquidity support.

Additionally, the protocol introduced data validator staking, where VANA holders can lock their coins in data validators instead of individual DataDAOs.

“Rewards are based on network security and usage. Stakers earn proportionally to their contribution to network uptime and data availability. No more idle staking. Earnings are tied to real network utility and reliability,” Vana said.

The VANA token changed hands at $5.58 at press time, the lowest in over two weeks, extending the decline from the recent price high of $8.78 on Binance, according to data source TradingView.

The post EVM-Compatible Vana Blockchain Introduces New Token Standard for Data-Backed Digital Assets appeared first on Crypto Spyder.