Despite growing tariff-related uncertainty, there is a 70% probability cryptocurrency markets will find the local bottom in the next two months, which will serve as the supporting foundation for the next leg up in the 2025 cycle, according to Nansen analysts.

Savvy traders continue making generational wealth despite growing volatility and lack of risk appetite. One unidentified trader turned an initial $2,000 investment into over $43 million by trading the popular frog-themed memecoin, Pepe.

70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

The cryptocurrency market may see a local bottom in the next two months amid global uncertainty over ongoing import tariff negotiations, which have been limiting investor sentiment in both traditional and digital markets.

US President Donald Trump on April 2 announced reciprocal import tariffs, measures aimed at reducing the country’s estimated trade deficit of $1.2 trillion in goods and boosting domestic manufacturing. 

While global markets took a hit from the first tariff announcement, there is a 70% chance for cryptocurrency valuations to find their bottom by June, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

The research analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Nansen data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will bottom between now and June, with BTC and ETH currently trading 15% and 22% below their year-to-date highs, respectively. Given this data, upcoming discussions will serve as crucial market indicators.”

She added: “Once the toughest part of the negotiation is behind us, we see a cleaner opportunity for crypto and risk assets to finally mark a bottom.”

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Crypto trader turns $2,000 of PEPE into $43 million

A savvy cryptocurrency trader reportedly turned $2,000 into more than $43 million by investing in the memecoin Pepe at its peak valuation, despite the token’s extreme volatility and lack of underlying technical value.

The trader made an over 4,700-fold return on investment on the popular frog-themed Pepe (PEPE) cryptocurrency, according to blockchain intelligence platform Lookonchain.

“This OG spent only $2,184 to buy 1.5T $PEPE($43M at the peak) in the early stage. He sold 1.02T $PEPE for $6.66M, leaving 493B $PEPE($3.64M), with a total profit of $10.3M(4,718x), Lookonchain wrote in a March 29 X post.

The trader realized over $10 million in profit despite Pepe’s price falling over 74% from its all-time high of $0.00002825, reached on Dec. 9, 2024, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Memecoins are considered some of the most speculative and volatile digital assets, with price action driven largely by online enthusiasm and social sentiment rather than fundamental utility or innovation.

Still, they’ve proven capable of generating life-changing returns. In May 2024, another early Pepe investor turned $27 into $52 million — a 1.9 million-fold return — according to onchain data.

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$1 trillion stablecoin supply could drive next crypto rally — CoinFund’s Pakman

The global stablecoin supply may surge to $1 trillion by the end of 2025, potentially becoming a key catalyst for broader cryptocurrency market growth, according to David Pakman, managing partner at crypto-native investment firm CoinFund.

“We’re in a stablecoin adoption upswell that’s likely to increase dramatically this year,” Pakman said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X on March 27. “We could go from $225 billion stablecoins to $1 trillion just this calendar year.”

He noted that such growth, while modest compared to global financial markets, would represent a “meaningfully significant” shift for blockchain-based finance.

Pakman also suggested that the rise in capital flowing onchain, combined with growing interest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), could further support decentralized finance (DeFi) activity:

“If we have a moment this year where ETFs are permitted to provide staking rewards or yield to holders, that unlocks really meaningful uplift in DeFi activity, broadly defined.”

https://t.co/v9lOnk00QY

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 27, 2025

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Avalanche stablecoins up 70% to $2.5 billion; AVAX demand lacks DeFi deployment

Avalanche saw a significant surge in stablecoin supply over the past year, but the onchain deployment of this capital points to passive investor behavior, which may be limiting demand for the network’s utility token.

The stablecoin supply on the Avalanche network rose by over 70% over the past year, from $1.5 billion in March 2024 to over $2.5 billion as of March 31, 2025, according to Avalanche’s X post.

Stablecoins are the main bridge between the fiat and crypto world, and increasing stablecoin supply is often seen as a signal for incoming buying pressure and growing investor appetite.

However, Avalanche’s (AVAX) token has been in a downtrend, dropping nearly 60% over the past year to trade just above $19 despite the $1 billion increase in stablecoin supply, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

“The apparent contradiction between surging stablecoin value on Avalanche and AVAX’s significant price decline likely stems from how that stablecoin liquidity is being held,” according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock crypto intelligence platform.

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DeFi TVL falls 27% while AI, social apps surge in Q1: DappRadar

Economic uncertainty and a major crypto exchange hack pushed down the total value locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols to $156 billion in the first quarter of 2025, but AI and social apps gained ground with an increase in network users, according to a crypto analytics firm.

“Broader economic uncertainty and lingering aftershocks from the Bybit exploit” were the main contributing factors to the DeFi sector’s 27% quarter-on-quarter fall in TVL, according to an April 3 report from DappRadar, which noted that the price of Ether (ETH) fell 45% to $1,820 over the same period.

The largest blockchain by TVL, Ethereum, fell 37% to $96 billion, while Sui was the hardest hit of the top 10 blockchains by TVL, falling 44% to $2 billion.

Solana, Tron and the Arbitrum blockchains also saw their TVLs slashed over 30%.

Meanwhile, blockchains that experienced a larger volume of DeFi withdrawals and had a smaller share of stablecoins locked in their protocols faced extra pressure on top of the falling token prices.

The newly launched Berachain was the only top-10 blockchain by TVL to rise, accumulating $5.17 billion between Feb. 6 and March 31, DappRadar noted.

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DeFi market overview

According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.

The Pi Network (PI) token fell over 34%, logging the week’s biggest decline, followed by the Berachain (BERA) token, down nearly 30% on the weekly chart.

Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.

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Despite a $30 billion surge in stablecoin supply to new record levels, cryptocurrency investors remained cautious as they awaited market stability amid US tariff fears.

The total stablecoin supply rose by more than $30 billion in the first quarter of 2025, even as the overall crypto market capitalization fell 19%, according to a new report by crypto intelligence platform IntoTheBlock.

“The correlation between crypto and stocks climbed as macro expectations quickly shifted from “golden era” optimism to tariff-led doom and gloom,” according to IntoTheBlock’s quarterly report, shared with Cointelegraph.

The stablecoin supply’s growth reflects a “cautious stance, with investors holding stablecoins as a hedge, likely waiting for market stability or better entry points,” according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock crypto intelligence platform.

Related: Stablecoin rules needed in US before crypto tax reform, experts say

Industry leaders have predicted that the stablecoin supply may surpass $1 trillion in 2025, potentially acting as a significant crypto market catalyst.

“We’re in a stablecoin adoption upswell that’s likely to increase dramatically this year,” CoinFund’s David Pakman said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X on March 27. “We could go from $225 billion stablecoins to $1 trillion just this calendar year.”

The stablecoin supply surpassed the $219 billion record high on March 15. Analysts see the growing stablecoin supply as a signal for the continuation of the bull cycle.

Related: Stablecoins, tokenized assets gain as Trump tariffs loom

Stablecoin activity soars on Ethereum

During the first quarter of the year, the Ethereum network saw over $3 trillion worth of stablecoin transactions on the mainnet, excluding layer-2 networks.

The number of unique addresses using stablecoins on Ethereum mainnet also surpassed the record 200,000 mark for the first time in March.

Despite the growing blockchain activity, the price of Ether (ETH) fell by over 45% during the first quarter of 2025, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

The decline in ETH is linked to a combination of broader macroeconomic concerns and Ethereum-specific pressures, such as increased competition from networks like Solana and the rise of layer-2 protocols.

“Some analysts argue that layer-2 solutions dilute ETH’s value by shifting activity off the main chain, but this overlooks how L2s still rely on Ethereum for security and pay fees, contributing to its ecosystem,” Pellicer said.

He added that the decline in ETH is more likely due to market sentiment and uncertainty about Ethereum’s ability to capture value from its broader ecosystem.

Still, other analysts see a silver lining to the tariff-related investor concerns. Nansen analysts predicted a 70% chance for crypto markets to bottom by June 2025 as tariff negotiations advance.

Magazine: Bitcoin $500K prediction, spot Ether ETF ‘staking issue’— Thomas Fahrer, X Hall of Flame

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First Digital has redeemed almost $26 million in stablecoin withdrawals after its FDUSD token briefly lost its US dollar peg following allegations of insolvency by Tron founder Justin Sun.

First Digital USD (FDUSD) depegged on April 2, briefly falling as low as $0.87 after Sun claimed that First Digital was insolvent.

On April 4, Sun doubled down on his allegations, claiming the firm transferred over $450 million of customer funds to a Dubai-based entity and that it violated Hong Kong securities regulations.

“FDT transferred $456 million of its custodial clients to a private company in Dubai without their authorization and has not yet returned the money,” Sun claimed.

Despite the claims, blockchain data from Etherscan shows First Digital has honored approximately $25.8 million in FDUSD redemptions since the incident.

“We continue to process redemptions smoothly, demonstrating the fortitude of $FDUSD,” noted First Digital in an April 3 X post.

When users redeem FDUSD for US dollars, the corresponding amount of FDUSD is burned onchain for the stablecoin to maintain a 1-to-1 peg with the US dollar and ensure the circulating supply matches reserves.

Related: Wintermute transfers $75M FDUSD since depegs, in $3M arbitrage opportunity

Following Sun’s claims, First Digital assured users that it is solvent and that FDUSD remains fully backed and redeemable.

“First Digital stands firm: Justin Sun’s baseless accusations won’t distract from Techteryx’s own failures— our stablecoin FDUSD remains fully backed and solvent,” First Digital stated in an April 3 X post.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Stablecoin depegs “greater systemic risk” than Bitcoin crash

Stablecoins depegs pose “a greater systemic risk” to crypto than a Bitcoin (BTC) crash, as “stablecoins are integral to liquidity, DeFi and user trust,” according to Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

Stablecoin depegs can cause “cascading failures like the TerraUSD collapse in 2022,” Chen told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Current transparency, collateral quality and accountability among leading stablecoin issuers are insufficient — Tether’s lack of full audits, USDC’s exposure to banking risks and algorithmic stablecoins’ fragility highlight the market’s vulnerability to the next depeg event.”

“To mitigate risks, the market should enforce real-time audits, prioritize high-quality collateral like US Treasurys, strengthen regulatory oversight and diversify stablecoin usage to reduce reliance on a few dominant players,” Chen added.

In May 2022, the $40 billion Terra ecosystem collapsed, erasing tens of billions of dollars of value in days. Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, TerraUSD (UST), had yielded an over 20% annual percentage yield (APY) on Anchor Protocol before its collapse.

As UST lost its dollar peg, crashing to a low of around $0.30, Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon took to X (then Twitter) to share his rescue plan. At the same time, the value of sister token LUNA — once a top 10 crypto project by market capitalization — plunged over 98% to $0.84. LUNA was trading north of $120 in early April 2022.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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The value locked in Bitcoin-based decentralized finance (BTCFi) has surged by more than 2,700% over the past year, potentially transforming Bitcoin from a passive store of value into a productive, yield-bearing asset, according to new research from Binance.

BTCFi is a new technological paradigm that aims to bring decentralized finance capabilities to Bitcoin’s base layer. It is one of the fastest-growing crypto sectors, reaching a total value locked (TVL) of over $8.6 billion.

The growing value of BTCFi, “along with potential interest rate cuts, may reinforce positive sentiment for Bitcoin in the medium and long term,” Binance Research wrote in a report shared with Cointelegraph.

If the BTCFi sector’s growth trajectory continues, it could open up “new opportunities for Bitcoin holders to generate yield through lending, liquidity provision, and other DeFi mechanisms,” a Binance spokesperson told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This may contribute to a shift in how BTC is perceived — from a passive store-of-value to a productive on-chain asset. While it’s too early to determine the full impact, these evolving use cases could support broader adoption and, over time, strengthen demand.”

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Interest in BTCFi surged after April 2024’s Bitcoin halving, which introduced the Runes protocol, the first fungible token standard on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Several Bitcoin-native projects have helped accelerate the trend.

Babylon introduced Bitcoin (BTC) staking for the first time in the network’s history, enabling holders to earn passive income from their assets.

Hermetica launched the first Bitcoin-backed synthetic dollar, USDh, which debuted with a 25% yield for investors.

Related: Crypto trader turns $2K PEPE into $43M, sells for $10M profit

BTC long-term holders resume Bitcoin accumulation

Long-term Bitcoin holders have restarted their BTC accumulation after the BTC supply held by long-term holders bottomed in February.

Long-term holders are wallets that have been holding BTC for at least 155 days. Growing accumulation from long-term holders has reduced the available Bitcoin supply on exchanges, which may eventually lead to a supply shock-driven price rally.

The growing accumulation trend among long-term holders aligns with a “significant period of adoption for Bitcoin,” due to the establishment of the US strategic Bitcoin reserve and growing institutional interest, according to the research report.

On March 7, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve using BTC seized from government criminal cases.

Trump signed the historic Bitcoin reserve order a day ahead of hosting the first White House Crypto Summit, which received mixed reactions from the crypto community.

Magazine: Bitcoiner sex trap extortion? BTS firm’s blockchain disaster: Asia Express

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Market makers’ blockchain transactions point to a potential $3 million arbitrage opportunity related to the depegging of the FDUSD stablecoin.

The First Digital US dollar-pegged stablecoin (FDUSD) depegged on April 2, after Tron founder Justin Sun claimed that the stablecoin issuer was insolvent.

Market marker Wintermute transferred over 75 million FDUSD tokens back to First Digital within a day since the stablecoin depegged to $0.87.

“Since $FDUSD depegged, #Wintermute has transferred 75M $FDUSD to First Digital Labs,” wrote blockchain intelligence platform Lookonchain, in an April 3 X post, adding:

“They likely bought $FDUSD at a discount during the depeg and redeemed it 1:1 through First Digital—making a solid profit.”

Wintermute with over 31 million FDUSD tokens from Binance right after the depegging occurred. “Assuming they bought $FDUSD near the bottom at $0.90, they would make over $3M when $FDUSD returned to the peg,” added Lookonchain.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

The selling patterns of market makers have been closely watched since February’s $2.24 billion crypto liquidation event, which saw large-scale selling from multiple market participants, including market makers.

However, the crypto market crashes of 2025 have been “directly linked to TradFi events,” such as DeepSeek and Trump’s tariffs, according to Evgeny Gaevoy, the founder of Wintermute.

Related: 70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

First Digital: “Our stablecoin remains fully backed and solvent”

Despite the insolvency claims, First Digital assured users they are completely solvent and said that FDUSD is still fully backed and redeemable with the US dollar on a 1:1 basis.

“First Digital stands firm: Justin Sun’s baseless accusations won’t distract from Techteryx’s own failures— our stablecoin FDUSD remains fully backed and solvent,” wrote First Digital in an April 3 X post.

Still, some analytics tools have previously highlighted potential weaknesses in FDUSD’s stability, which was rated as 4 or “constrained” according to the S&P Global Ratings’ stablecoin stability assessment, shared with Cointelegraph on March 19.

“Our stablecoin stability assessments range from 2 (strong) to 5 (weak) in terms of a stablecoin’s ability to maintain its peg to a fiat currency,” and “the quality of the assets backing the stablecoin is a critical driver of the final assessment,” an S&P Global Ratings spokesperson told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Weaknesses in other areas, including regulation and supervision, governance, transparency, liquidity and redeemability, and track record, contributed to those stablecoins with lower assessments.”

First Digital said it would take legal action against Sun’s false bankruptcy allegations, which led to the stablecoin’s depegging.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Cryptocurrency listings have outperformed the average of traditional stock listings, despite recent community criticism regarding the manipulation potential of token listings on centralized exchanges.

Token listing procedures on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges (CEXs) drew significant controversy after Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, co-founder and former CEO of Binance, called the process flawed after disappointing performances of some token listings.

Despite the criticism, crypto exchanges have outperformed traditional stock exchanges in terms of listings with positive returns on investment (ROI) and average ROI, according to an April 3 CoinMarketCap report shared exclusively with Cointelegraph.

Over the past 180 days, crypto exchange listings had an average return of over 80%, outperforming the largest traditional stock indexes such as the Nasdaq and Dow Jones, as well as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

The 80% return refers to the average performance of all listed tokens by the seven major exchanges, including Binance, Bybit, Coinbase, OKX, Bitget, Gate and KuCoin.

Moreover, 68% of crypto exchange listings boasted a positive ROI, outperforming the New York Stock Exchange’s (NYSE) 54% and the Nasdaq’s 51%.

“This data suggests that crypto exchanges have made progress in refining their listing,” the report said.

Related: 70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

Cryptocurrencies listed on CEXs generally see high demand from investors as the exchanges provide significant new liquidity that can boost the coins’ price performances after listing.

Token-listing criteria on CEXs started garnering attention in November 2024, after Tron founder Justin Sun claimed that Coinbase allegedly asked for $330 million in total fees to list Tron (TRX), a surprising allegation since Coinbase claims to charge no fees for listing new cryptocurrencies.

Related: Trump-linked crypto ventures may complicate US stablecoin policy

Token listing performance still depends on broader market conditions: Binance

Recent investor disappointment with some token listings may stem from historic profit expectations due to the significant upside of numerous CEX-listed tokens.

Still, the returns of a cryptocurrency after listing depend on the wider market appetite, a Binance spokesperson told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Outcomes can vary depending on broader market conditions. As the industry matures, we’re seeing reduced volatility compared to earlier cycles — a shift that reflects greater stability and long-term sustainability in the crypto market.”

“Crypto investors’ expectations for new listings to perform well are understandable and often shaped by the historic success” of CEX listings, added the spokesperson.

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, listed 77 cryptocurrencies throughout 2023 and 2024, with a 0% delisting rate.

Binance announced a community voting mechanism for token listings on March 9, to make the listing process more decentralized.

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

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Binance co-founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao donated over half a million dollars worth of crypto to the earthquake disaster relief effort in Thailand and Myanmar, in another testament to the growing utility of blockchain-based emergency charity efforts.

Zhao donated 1,000 BNB (BNB) tokens worth almost $600,000 to the disaster relief funds for the region on March 3, blockchain data shows.

“Sent 1000 BNB for the donation for Myanmar and Thailand,” wrote Zhao in an April 3 X post.

The crypto donation comes after Thailand and Myanmar were hit by a 7.7 magnitude earthquake on March 28, causing severe damage to buildings and widespread flooding.

Related: 70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

At least 2,719 people have been confirmed dead in Myanmar and 18 in Thailand, with 76 people still unaccounted for, according to the latest figures shared by Reuters.

The $600,000 donation comes nearly a week after Zhao pledged to donate 500 BNB for the relief efforts, an initial commitment that he doubled. Cryptocurrency-based donations have emerged as a significant lifeline for the region, due to banking restrictions caused by damaged infrastructure.

Crypto donations exceeded $1 billion in 2024, spurred by increasing digital asset valuations and growing crypto regulatory clarity. About 16% of the donations went toward education, while 14% went toward medicine and health-related efforts.

The Giving Block has launched a crypto-based emergency relief effort for Myanmar and Thailand to raise $500,000 for the devastated region.

The organization expects crypto donations to reach $2.5 billion in 2025 on growing crypto wealth generation and increasing adoption due to a more favorable political landscape.

Related: Trump-linked crypto ventures may complicate US stablecoin policy

Crypto donations gain traction for emergency relief efforts

Zhao’s donation is a testament to the growing role of cryptocurrency in humanitarian aid, according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

“Crypto donations, compared to traditional fiat contributions, offer unique advantages, especially in emergencies,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Speed is a key factor—transactions on blockchain networks can settle in minutes, bypassing the delays of banks or intermediaries, which is critical when time saves lives.”

“In disaster-stricken areas like Myanmar or Thailand, where infrastructure might be compromised, crypto can reach recipients directly via digital wallets, no SWIFT codes or wire transfers required,” Lian explained.

Lian also donated 44 BNB tokens to the relief efforts in Myanmar and Thailand, a move that was publicly praised by Zhao.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has been known for his crypto donations. In October, Buterin donated over $180,000 in Ether (ETH) to the biotech charity Kanro.

Magazine: GUN token’s $69M milestone, Pudgy Penguins go to LOL Land: Web3 Gamer

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Avalanche saw a significant surge in stablecoin supply over the past year, but the onchain deployment of this capital points to passive investor behavior, which may be limiting demand for the network’s utility token.

The stablecoin supply on the Avalanche network rose by over 70% over the past year, from $1.5 billion in March 2024, to over $2.5 billion as of March 31, 2025, according to Avalanche’s X pos

Stablecoins are the main bridge between the fiat and crypto world and increasing stablecoin supply is often seen as a signal for incoming buying pressure and growing investor appetite.

However, Avalanche’s (AVAX) token has been in a downtrend, dropping nearly 60% over the past year to trade above $19 as of 12:31 pm UTC, despite the $1 billion increase in stablecoin supply, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

“The apparent contradiction between surging stablecoin value on Avalanche and AVAX’s significant price decline likely stems from how that stablecoin liquidity is being held,” according to Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock crypto intelligence platform.

Related: Bitcoin can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

A “substantial portion” of these inflows consists of bridged Tether (USDT), the research analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This seems as inactive treasury holdings rather than capital actively deployed within Avalanche’s DeFi ecosystem (at least for the time being). If these stablecoins aren’t being used in lending, swapping, or other DeFi activities that would typically drive demand for AVAX (for gas, collateral, etc.), their presence alone wouldn’t necessarily boost the AVAX price”

The AVAX token’s downtrend comes during a wider crypto market correction, as investor sentiment is pressured by global uncertainty ahead of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal import tariff announcement on April 2, a measure aimed at reducing the country’s estimated trade deficit of $1.2 trillion.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys Bitcoin dip with $1.9B purchase

70% chance for crypto market to bottom by June: Nansen analysts

Nansen analysts predict a 70% chance that the crypto market will bottom in the next two months leading into June as the ongoing tariff-related negotiations progress and investor concerns are alleviated.

“Once the toughest part of the negotiation is behind us, we see a cleaner opportunity for crypto and risk assets to finally mark a bottom,” Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen crypto intelligence platform, told Cointelegraph.

Both traditional and cryptocurrency markets continue to lack upside momentum ahead of the US tariff announcement.

“For the main US equity indexes and for BTC, the respective price charts failed to resurface above their 200-day moving averages significantly, while lower-lookback price moving averages are falling,” wrote Nansen in an April 1 research report. 

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

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The cryptocurrency market may see a local bottom in the next two months amid global uncertainty over ongoing import tariff negotiations, which have been limiting investor sentiment in both traditional and digital markets.

US President Donald Trump is set to detail on April 2 his reciprocal import tariffs, measures aimed at reducing the country’s estimated trade deficit of $1.2 trillion in goods and boosting domestic manufacturing. 

While global markets took a hit from the first tariff announcement, there is a 70% chance for cryptocurrency valuations to find their bottom by June, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

The research analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Nansen data estimates a 70% probability that crypto prices will bottom between now and June, with BTC and ETH currently trading 15% and 22% below their year-to-date highs, respectively. Given this data, upcoming discussions will serve as crucial market indicators.”

“Once the toughest part of the negotiation is behind us, we see a cleaner opportunity for crypto and risk assets to finally mark a bottom,” she added.

Related: Bitcoin can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Both traditional and cryptocurrency markets continue to lack upside momentum ahead of the US tariff announcement.

“For the main US equity indexes and for BTC, the respective price charts failed to resurface above their 200-day moving averages significantly, while lower-lookback price moving averages are falling,” wrote Nansen in an April 1 research report. 

“Fragile market psychology highlights the necessity of “good news,” mainly on US growth and on tariffs,” added the report.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys Bitcoin dip with $1.9B purchase

Bitcoin needs to hold $82k amid crypto market “wait and see” mode: analyst

Investors are currently in “wait and see mode” and are hesitant to take on large positions as markets lack direction.

However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained above the “extreme fear” mark for a third consecutive session, which suggests a marginal improvement despite continued caution, Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

“This reinforces the view that markets are in a wait-and-see mode,” Zlatareva told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the $82,000 – $85,000 range after experiencing a period of directional recalibration in Q1. The asset is navigating this zone with key support at $82,000 and upside potential toward $86,500 and $90,000 if broader sentiment stabilizes.”

Other traders are awaiting a Bitcoin breakout above $84,500 as a signal for more upside momentum amid the ongoing tariff uncertainty.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

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Bitcoin may still rise to over $250,000 before the end of the year, with expectations of an increasing fiat supply remaining the significant catalyst for the world’s first cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2025 price rally may be boosted by the US Federal Reserve pivoting to quantitative easing (QE), when the Fed buys bonds and pumps money into the economy to lower interest rates and encourage spending during difficult financial conditions. 

“Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom.

Hayes wrote in an April 1 Substack post:

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.”

The Fed reduced the Treasury runoff cap to $5 billion per month from $25 billion effective April 1, while keeping mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff steady at $35 billion.

The Fed may allow the MBS roll off without replacement and the excess principal payment might be reinvested into Treasurys, according to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell published by Reuters.

“Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced,” added Hayes.

Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension

Other analysts are eying a more conservative Bitcoin price top based on BTC’s correlation with the global liquidity index.

The growing money supply could push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur Hayes

Fed will “flood the market with dollars” 

Hayes has been “buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500,” showcasing his conviction in the crypto market for the rest of 2025. The pace of capital deployment will increase or decrease depending on the accuracy of his predictions.

“I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars,” wrote Hayes, adding:

“That allows Xi Jinping to instruct the PBOC to stop tightening monetary conditions onshore to defend the dollar-yuan exchange rate, which increases the net quantity of yuan.”

Despite the optimistic prediction, many market participants are betting on a lower Bitcoin price top for the end of 2025.

Only 9% of traders have placed bets on Bitcoin hitting $250,000, while 60% expect Bitcoin to hit $110,000 in 2025, according to Polymarket, the largest decentralized predictions market.

Still, Bitcoin and global risk appetite remain pressured by global tariff fears ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement, scheduled for April 2.

“Long-term positioning remains intact, but near-term momentum appears tethered to unfolding macro headlines,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

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